From its founding in 1949 by the United States, Canada and a handful of European allies, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s purpose was to deter Soviet aggression, a goal that came to seem obsolete after the Soviet Union’s collapse — at least to some. “What we are currently experiencing,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in 2019, “is the brain death of NATO.”
Now, as President Biden and the alliance’s 30 other leaders prepare to gather for their annual summit, few doubt the bloc’s crucial role as a bulwark against Russia’s neo-imperialist aggression. When it convenes starting Tuesday, in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, the goal will be nothing short of “the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defense since the Cold War,” as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg put it.
If anything, Mr. Stoltenberg is understating the case. For what happens in Vilnius could set Europe on a path toward a decade or more of durable security arrangements — or, if the U.S.-led alliance fails to show serious intent and strength, invite new wars by demonstrating to the Kremlin that NATO is a paper tiger.
The timing is not great for such a high-stakes meeting. As Europe reels from its biggest war in eight decades, and as NATO’s own front-line members face the increasingly plausible scenario of future Russian attacks, most of the West’s biggest economies are struggling with the threat or reality of recession. Even if the 31-nation bloc strikes the right notes and charts solid plans for shoring up its weak links, members will be hard-pressed to pay for the commitments they make. As things stand now, only 11 of 31 members meet its target of spending 2 percent of annual gross economic output on defense.