The best and worst surprises of MLB’s first half

Before the season, FanGraphs gave the Orioles a 9.9 percent chance to make the playoffs. That number is now 75 percent thanks in part to catcher Adley Rutschman, who has picked up where he left off as a rookie, and outfielder Austin Hays, who is hitting .314 and will join Rutschman at Tuesday’s All-Star Game. The Orioles’ starting pitchers have struggled to a 4.48 ERA, sixth worst in the American League, but the bullpen, led by all-stars Yennier Cano (0.89 WHIP) and closer Félix Bautista (84 strikeouts in 42 innings), has been solid.

Like most teams outpacing expectations, the Orioles have benefited from a fair amount of luck. Baltimore has won five more games than expected based on its run differential and nine more games than expected per its BaseRuns, a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score and allow given its underlying offensive and defensive performance.

The Mets have some company among disappointing free-spending teams. Despite MLB’s third-highest payroll, the Padres, who lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in last year’s NL Championship Series, are in fourth place in the NL West. San Diego’s seemingly stacked lineup, built around Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado, lacks depth and has been inconsistent, ranking tied for ninth in the NL in runs. The Padres’ starting pitching has been good, but right-hander Michael Wacha (8-2, 2.84 ERA) was recently placed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation.

How surprising is the Reds’ first-half success? Their 12-game winning streak in June was the longest by a team that lost at least 100 games the previous season since the Louisville Colonels — in 1890. Cincinnati has outperformed expectations on the strength of its young position players, including 25-year-old first baseman Spencer Steer, 23-year-old shortstop Matt McLain and 21-year-old infielder Elly De La Cruz, who smacked a double in his major league debut June 6, hit for the cycle in his 15th career game and stole second, third and home in a two-pitch span Saturday.

Cincinnati, which leads the majors in stolen bases, is looking to secure its second postseason appearance since 2013 and blow past its projected win total despite its starting pitchers posting the third-worst ERA in baseball. Rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott has provided a boost since being promoted in early June, and the looming returns of injured right-hander Hunter Greene (hip) and left-hander Nick Lodolo (lower leg) should help down the stretch. Closer Alexis Díaz (26 saves in 28 opportunities) has anchored one of the game’s better bullpens.

Manoah was an all-star for the Toronto Blue Jays last season and finished third in AL Cy Young voting after going 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA. But the 25-year-old right-hander was demoted in early June after he allowed six earned runs in one-third of an inning, raising his ERA to 6.36. After an ugly outing in his first minor league start in the Florida Complex League, Manoah struck out 10 and allowed one run over five innings for the Class AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, earning a promotion back to the big leagues. Manoah pitched well in his return, allowing one run and striking out eight over six innings Friday. With the Blue Jays in the thick of the AL wild-card race, Manoah pitching more like the 2022 version of himself will be key.

NL rookie of the year favorite and MVP candidate Corbin Carroll has been the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks’ best player, although a right shoulder injury before the break is concerning. But it’s perhaps Perdomo who has been their biggest surprise. Perdomo’s OPS has jumped from .547 last season to .787 this year. In about half the plate appearances, he has already matched last season’s total in home runs (five) and exceeded it in stolen bases (with 11), and he’s on pace to set career highs in runs and RBI. His miss rate at the plate is also much improved.

The Rangers finished in fourth place last year, 38 games behind the AL West champion Houston Astros, which tempered expectations for 2023 despite another busy offseason. Even without free agent acquisition Jacob deGrom, who underwent elbow surgery in June, Texas is leading the division and is on pace to easily surpass its preseason win total of 81½ games set by oddsmakers. FanGraphs gives the Rangers nearly a 70 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Six Texas players — catcher Jonah Heim, second baseman Marcus Semien, shortstop Corey Seager, third baseman Josh Jung, outfielder Adolis García and pitcher Nathan Eovaldi — were named to the AL all-star team. Heim ranks 14th among qualified players in RBI, but he has driven in a league-best 24 percent of runners on base. Semien is close behind in that statistic, driving in 20 percent of base runners.

Pitching is to blame for the Cardinals’ dire situation — 14 games under .500 and headed for their first losing season since 2007. St. Louis pitchers have a combined 4.63 ERA, the sixth-worst mark in baseball. The rotation (25th in quality starts) and bullpen (21 blown saves, most in MLB this year) have been equally disappointing. After accounting for the inning, outs and men on base at the time of a pitch, St. Louis hurlers have allowed about 47 more runs than expected.

After making nine starts as an Atlanta Braves rookie last season, Elder was optioned to Class AAA during spring training. But since being called up to replace injured Opening Day starter Max Fried in early April, the 24-year-old right-hander has pitched more like an ace than a prospect who failed to secure the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation.

One of a franchise-record eight Atlanta players named to the NL all-star team, Elder enters the break with a 7-2 record and a 2.97 ERA despite allowing seven earned runs in 3⅓ innings Sunday. The 2020 fifth-round pick out of the University of Texas has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but four of his 18 starts, and he’s a big reason the Braves boast the best record in baseball.

Abreu, the 2020 AL MVP, is batting .237 with seven home runs and a .630 OPS for the Houston Astros, creating runs at a rate 26 percent lower than average after accounting for league and park effects. The 36-year-old’s previous career low for creating runs was 14 percent higher than average. Seeing a decline after age 35 isn’t a surprise, but the speed at which Abreu’s offensive ability is deteriorating is, especially after he signed a three-year, $58.5 million contract this offseason.